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Table. 3.

Table. 3.

Predictive performance of Bayesian prediction depending on whether or not peak concentration data are used when using 1st occasion data to predict the 2nd occasion AUC or concentration (N=54)

Reference value (2nd occasion data) Used data (1st occasion) for prediction MDPE, % (95% CI) MDAPE, % (95% CI) Median ΔPE, % (95% CI) Median ΔAPE, % (95% CI)
AUCestimated[T&P] Trough –1.6 (–7.8, 4.1) 12.4 (8.0, 22.2) 4.5 (2.4, 7.0) –2.4 (–4.8, 1.6)
Peak, trough –6.2 (–12.6, 0.6) 16.9 (11.1, 24.7)
AUCestimated[T] Trough –5.2 (–10.5, –1.8) 11.4 (8.3, 17.6) 4.4 (2.6, 6.9) –3.6 (–6.9, –0.4)
Peak, trough –9.6 (–15.4, –3.5) 18.2 (12.5, 23.0)
AUCEq.(4) Trough 4.7 (–2.1, 15.1) 21.7 (15.1, 26.5) 4.6 (2.3, 7.7) 1.7 (–2.4, 4.1)
Peak, trough 0.4 (–5.9, 11.1) 16.2 (12.4, 25.2)
AUCEq.(5) Trough 3.0 (–9.1, 11.4) 18.3 (15.0, 23.1) 4.3 (2.2, 7.1) 1.1 (–3.8, 3.0)
Peak, trough –3.3 (–9.2, 5.5) 18.5 (10.1, 26.6)
Trough Cmeasured Trough –8.7 (–18.5, –5.3) 18.0 (13.7, 22.9) 2.5 (0.5, 4.4) –1.7 (–3.3, 0.6)
Peak, trough –13.2 (–19.7, –6.6) 21.0 (14.6, 26.6)
Peak Cmeasured Trough 8.3 (–5.4, 15.0) 17.8 (14.8, 29.4) 5.9 (3.2, 9.3) 2.6 (–4.1, 5.1)
Peak, trough 2.0 (–9.3, 8.5) 18.3 (13.5, 26.2)

Abbreviations: AUC, area under the concentration–-time curve (mg∙hr/L); AUCestimated[T], AUC estimated by fitting the trough concentration on the corresponding occasion; AUCestimated[T&P], AUC estimated by fitting trough and peak concentrations on the corresponding occasion; Cmeasured, measured concentration; CI, confidence interval; MDPE, median prediction error; MDAPE, median absolute prediction error; ΔPE, paired difference of prediction error; ΔAPE, paired difference of absolute prediction error.

Ann Lab Med 2023;43:554~564 https://doi.org/10.3343/alm.2023.43.6.554

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