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Table. 3. Table 3

Predictive performance of Bayesian prediction depending on whether or not peak concentration data are used when using 1^st occasion data to predict the 2^nd occasion AUC or concentration (N=54)

Reference value (2^nd occasion data)	Used data (1^st occasion) for prediction	MDPE, % (95% CI)	MDAPE, % (95% CI)	Median ΔPE, % (95% CI)	Median ΔAPE, % (95% CI)
AUC_{estimated[T&P]}	Trough	–1.6 (–7.8, 4.1)	12.4 (8.0, 22.2)	4.5 (2.4, 7.0)	–2.4 (–4.8, 1.6)
	Peak, trough	–6.2 (–12.6, 0.6)	16.9 (11.1, 24.7)
AUC_estimated[T]	Trough	–5.2 (–10.5, –1.8)	11.4 (8.3, 17.6)	4.4 (2.6, 6.9)	–3.6 (–6.9, –0.4)
	Peak, trough	–9.6 (–15.4, –3.5)	18.2 (12.5, 23.0)
AUC_Eq.(4)	Trough	4.7 (–2.1, 15.1)	21.7 (15.1, 26.5)	4.6 (2.3, 7.7)	1.7 (–2.4, 4.1)
	Peak, trough	0.4 (–5.9, 11.1)	16.2 (12.4, 25.2)
AUC_Eq.(5)	Trough	3.0 (–9.1, 11.4)	18.3 (15.0, 23.1)	4.3 (2.2, 7.1)	1.1 (–3.8, 3.0)
	Peak, trough	–3.3 (–9.2, 5.5)	18.5 (10.1, 26.6)
Trough C_measured	Trough	–8.7 (–18.5, –5.3)	18.0 (13.7, 22.9)	2.5 (0.5, 4.4)	–1.7 (–3.3, 0.6)
	Peak, trough	–13.2 (–19.7, –6.6)	21.0 (14.6, 26.6)
Peak C_measured	Trough	8.3 (–5.4, 15.0)	17.8 (14.8, 29.4)	5.9 (3.2, 9.3)	2.6 (–4.1, 5.1)
	Peak, trough	2.0 (–9.3, 8.5)	18.3 (13.5, 26.2)

Abbreviations: AUC, area under the concentration–-time curve (mg∙hr/L); AUC_estimated[T], AUC estimated by fitting the trough concentration on the corresponding occasion; AUC_{estimated[T&P]}, AUC estimated by fitting trough and peak concentrations on the corresponding occasion; C_measured, measured concentration; CI, confidence interval; MDPE, median prediction error; MDAPE, median absolute prediction error; ΔPE, paired difference of prediction error; ΔAPE, paired difference of absolute prediction error.

Ann Lab Med 2023;43:554~564 https://doi.org/10.3343/alm.2023.43.6.554